DOMUS GLOBALPoland’s residential premises price index rose by 1.5% in Q2 2026 compared with Q1 2026, and by 6.3% compared with Q2 2025, according to Statistics Poland (GUS). The secondary market recorded the larger quarterly increase; the primary market recorded the larger annual increase.
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Residential buildings in Warsaw. Illustrative photograph; it does not show an object of statistical observation.Oleksandr Petroniuk / Pexels · Pexels License
The GUS release was published on 1 October 2026. Its figures cover April–June 2026, not the market at the date of publication or any later quarter. The index measures past relative price changes, not a forecast or the price of a particular flat.
Poland: primary and secondary market changes
The national figures describe Q2 2026 against two separate reference periods. For the quarterly comparison, Q1 2026 equals 100; for the annual comparison, Q2 2025 equals 100. A published index of 101.5 therefore corresponds to an increase of 1.5% against the specified base.
- Both markets combined: 101.5, or +1.5% quarter on quarter; 106.3, or +6.3% year on year.
- Primary market: 101.3, or +1.3% quarter on quarter; 106.5, or +6.5% year on year.
- Secondary market: 101.6, or +1.6% quarter on quarter; 106.1, or +6.1% year on year.
These percentage changes are obtained by subtracting 100 from the indices published in table 1 of the GUS release. Based on the published rounded figures, the quarterly secondary-market increase exceeded the primary-market increase by 0.3 percentage points. On the annual comparison, the primary-market increase exceeded the secondary-market increase by 0.4 percentage points.
The two rankings describe different intervals. The annual result compares Q2 2026 with the same quarter a year earlier; the quarterly result compares it with the immediately preceding quarter. The two changes cannot be added to produce another period’s growth rate: their periods overlap and their bases differ.
A separate comparison with the 2025 average
GUS also publishes Q2 2026 indices with the average level for 2025 set to 100. On that basis, the index was 105.7 for both markets combined, 105.8 for the primary market and 105.6 for the secondary market. These correspond respectively to increases of 5.7%, 5.8% and 5.6% over the 2025 average.
This is a third reference base. It is neither the figure for Q2 2025 nor the figure for Q4 2025. The comparison with the annual average and the year-on-year comparison can both be correct while showing different percentages; they answer different questions about the same quarter.
Regional results: Mazowieckie is not Warsaw
All 16 voivodeships recorded increases on both comparisons in the GUS regional table. The highest quarterly increase was 2.9% in Opolskie, while the lowest was 0.5% in Wielkopolskie, both against Q1 2026. Over the year to Q2 2026, Kujawsko-Pomorskie had the highest increase at 8.6%, and Łódzkie the lowest at 1.5%.
The annual results for the two regions at the extremes of the quarterly range were close: Opolskie recorded an increase of 7.2%, Wielkopolskie 7.1%. Yet their quarterly results sit at opposite ends of the regional range. Results against different bases do not by themselves explain why prices changed.
These are relative changes, not a ranking of absolute price levels. A higher index increase in one voivodeship does not establish that its flats cost more per square metre than those elsewhere. The regional table combines the primary and secondary markets; it does not provide separate segment indices for each voivodeship.
In Mazowieckie, the index rose 1.0% quarter on quarter and 7.5% year on year. The annual change was 1.2 percentage points above the national increase, calculated from the published rounded figures. Mazowieckie includes Warsaw, but its index describes the whole voivodeship: it is not a separate result for Warsaw, any district or another individual city.
What the GUS index measures
The GUS methodology uses prices of residential premises purchased by households, drawing on Poland’s property price register, Rejestr Cen Nieruchomości (RCN). It covers the market transactions specified in the methodology, including auctions, while excluding certain sales, such as transactions between relatives. It is not a series of sellers’ asking prices in advertisements.
GUS uses stratification to limit the effect of changes in the mix of properties sold. Transactions are grouped into strata by market type, location and floor area. An elementary index compares each stratum’s average price with its average in Q4 of the preceding year. Results are then aggregated using a Laspeyres formula and weights based on the value of premises sold in the previous year, rather than simply comparing the overall averages of two sets of sales. The internal reference period does not change the bases of the published quarterly and annual comparisons.
For the 2026 index, the primary market has a weight of 45.6% and the secondary market 54.4%. The methodology links weights to the value of premises sold in the preceding year. These figures are weights in the index, not necessarily the two markets’ shares of the number of transactions.
The index is a measure of relative price change, not a mean or median price in złoty per square metre. It does not determine the value of an individual flat or the change in its price. An advertised asking price is a different measure and can differ from the registered price of a completed transaction.
Sources
- GUS: residential premises price indices in Q2 2026, published 1 October 2026; tables 1–2 and index weights. GUS archive entry.
- GUS: definition and index methodology.
Źródło danych GUS. Opracowanie własne na podstawie danych GUS.